Analysis Of The Impact Of Climatic Parameters On Agriculture In Algeria: Application Of The Ardl Model With Error Correction Mechanism.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climatic factors on the evolution of agricultural added value in Algeria during the period from 1999 to 2020. The study is based on an ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) model where the agricultural value added is the endogenous variable and temperature and precipitation are exogenous variables of the model. This study is developed by respecting the different stages of econometric analysis, we studied the stationarity of the variables, determined the optimal number of lags, estimated an ARDL model, tested cointegration, estimated the long-term relationship, studied the robustness of the model through the different tests of the residuals and finally estimated an ECM model. We were able to deduce that the temperature influences the agricultural added value positively, while the precipitation affects it negatively.