إشكالية تنافسية اليوان الصيني وأثر تقلباته على رصيد الميزان التجاري للصين مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية: دراسة قياسية للفترة (2000-2022)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) fluctuations of the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) on China's trade balance with the United States. We used quarterly time series data from Q1-2000 to Q4-2022, we employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model incorporates two control variables: China's and the United States' GDP. The findings reveal a positive relationship between the REER of the Yuan and China's trade surplus with the United States during the study period. Additionally, China's GDP exhibits a negative correlation with its trade balance, while the United States' GDP demonstrates a positive association with China's trade surplus with the United States.