تأثير تقلبات أسعار النفط والغاز الطبيعي على التضخم في الجزائر فترة 1971-2020: باستخدام نموذج Nardl.

Abstract

This research paper aims to analyze the volatility of oil and natural gas prices and their impact on inflation in Algeria during the period 1971-2020, We use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The results show that positive and negative variation of natural gas prices raised inflation as an asymmetrical in short and long term, While oil prices volatility are asymmetric only in the long run and its high prices reduce inflation, The results also showed that the inflation in Algeria is more responsive to positive variations of oil and natural gas prices than negative variations.