التنبؤ بالاستهلاك الطاقة المتجددة في الجزائر آفاق 2030 باستخدام نموذج أشعة الانحدارالذاتي (var)

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the consumption of renewable energy in Algeria for the period 2030-2024using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, using statistical data from 1991 to 2023, in addition to macroeconomic indicators for the benchmark study, namely GDP, unemployment rate and renewable electricity production. The results showed that the VAR model has a high ability to explain the dynamic relationships between the factors affecting renewable energy consumption, making it a valuable tool for forecasting and planning.The study also found a continuous increase in renewable energy consumption during the period from 2024 to 2030, which indicates a positive shift towards the adoption of renewable energy sources. Indicates a positive shift towards the adoption of clean and renewable energy sources in Algeria.