استخدام منهجية بوكس – جنكينز Box- Jenkins للتنبؤ بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي في السودان 2010- 2030م.

Abstract

The study aimed to test the effectiveness of applying the Bos-jenkins model in time which the size and value of GDP in sudan ,the problem of the study was represented in the question of the extent to which bos- Jenkins models can be adopted in analyzing the time series of the variable GDP in sudan during the period 2010-2021 and predicting it until the year 2030, the study used analytical prediction of the Bos-jenkins methodology , as it is the basic approach for this study , among the most important finding of the study : the ARIMA model is the best as it was characterized by high ability in predicting and anticipating future GDP values, it turns out that the values estimated by the Bos-jenkins of the GDP are the somewhat close to the real values and can be used to predict the variable in the future ,