تأثير صدمات أسعار النفط على سعر صرف الدينار الجزائري- دراسة قياسية تحليلية (1980-2020)

Abstract

Through this study, we aim to know the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and changes in the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar against the dollar during the period 1980-2020, using the non-linear distributed time gaps autoregressive model NARDL, depending on a set of annual data for the Algerian economy. Statistical tests to find out the type and nature of the relationship between variables in the short and long term. The study concluded that there is an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar, as the rise or fall of oil prices leads to a change in the exchange rates of the Algerian dinar, and accordingly the volume of the exchange reserve is affected by the increase or decrease and the purchasing power of the citizen by the increase or decrease in subsidies.