نمذجة قياسية لمحددات دالة الطلب على الأرصدة النقدية الحقيقية في الجزائر

Abstract

The study sought to develop an econometric model to identify the factors influencing the real money demand function in Algeria from 1990 to 2020 and assess its stability using the ARDL approach. The results demonstrate that real money demand in Algeria is affected by real GDP, the real exchange rate, the inflation rate, the discount rate (interest rate), and the velocity of money. There is a positive correlation between real money demand and both GDP and the discount rate, while a negative correlation exists with inflation, the real effective exchange rate, and the velocity of money. Additionally, the study found a cointegrating relationship among the variables, with an error correction coefficient of ( -1.32) indicating the model takes around nine months to return to long-term equilibrium. The cumulative sum of residuals and cumulative sum of squared residuals tests further verified the stability of Algeria’s real money demand function.