فرضية العجز التوأم (المزدوج ) وأثرها على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر

Abstract

This research paper aims to determine the impact of the twin deficit hypothesis on economic growth in Algeria "An analytical econometric study for the period 2001-2021" by building a econometric model estimated according to the autoregressive distributed lag methodology ARDL and showing the size of the impact of the twin deficit hypothesis in its short and long term types on economic growth in the short and long term, in addition to monitoring the causality in the short and long term between economic growth and the study variables according to Granger causality. The study concluded that the value reached 83.64%, meaning that the variables explain 83.64% of the variance in economic growth rates. Through the results of the Bounds test, it was found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty rates and explanatory variables, and thus the existence of a joint integration relationship between the variables of the study model. The most important results of causality are that economic growth does not cause a financial deficit, while it affects it, i.e. it is a onesided relationship, while the trade deficit causes economic growth, but it is not reverse causality, i.e. a one-sided relationship.