Estimation Of Iraq's Import Function Of Agricultural Commodities According To The General Commercial Gravity Model In The Period (2008- 2019)

Abstract

The research aimed to estimate the function of Iraq's import of agricultural commodities and the possibility of verifying that the commercial Gravity model is suitable for it by using the data collected longitudinally through its three models (pooled, fixed and random) It was relied on the multiple tests of Lakernji and Haussmann to determine the preference between them, as the random model was the best. By studying three independent variables: the size of the economy of the exporting country of Iraq represented by its gross domestic product, the gross domestic product of Iraq, and the distance between the centers of the two capitals. As for the dependent variable, it was the Iraqi agricultural imports from these countries, and 12 countries were selected for a period of 12 years, so the number of views is 144 and within the period 2008-2019.The research reached a set of results and recommendations, among which we mention the statistical significance of all parameters of the model, with a level of significance (5%) and that the sign of each of the two parameters of the GDP Both for exporting countries (X1), and for Iraq (X2) is positive, and the value of the geographical distance parameter with a negative value (X3) has proven its consistency with theory and reality. The increase in our imports from Turkey and Iran, in addition to the reasonable quality of their goods and the competitiveness of their prices globally. The research recommends diversifying the sources of agricultural import trends in a way that ensures avoiding losses and raising the ability to maneuver in supplying the internal market with the import demand process. It is also possible to benefit from the experiences of developed countries that formed blocs built on a commercial basis in reaching the fruits of success by providing similar projects after evaluating policies and programs that can be applied