أثر سعر الصرف على النمو الاقتصادي: تجربة من دول منطقة (mena)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effect .of the exchange rate on economic growth. Annual data was used from 2000 to 2019 for a sample of countries in the region of MENA: Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Bahrain, Iran, and Malta. The model was estimated by the fully modified ordinary least squares method FMOLS. The study concluded that the variables are in a cointegration situation and have a long-term equilibrium relationship. The error correction model explains about 97% of the changes in economic growth in the countries of the study sample. Also, the elasticity of the person's share of the Real Gross Product of the exchange rate is 1.77 per thousand. As a result, the decrease in the exchange rate of the local currency against the US dollar will increase external demand and stimulate exports, pushing the productive sector to expand and increase economic growth rates .